The Detroit Lions were served a harsh reminder of the Biblical adage on Sunday night in their second-half collapse to the San Francisco 49ers to fall 34-31 in the NFC championship game. The Lions, just as they have all year, decided to be aggressive and go for it on two questionable fourth downs, but failed both times, swinging the momentum in the 49ers’ favor as they scored 27 straight points in the second half to complete a 17-point comeback.
The analytics backed up Campbell’s decision-making on both key fourth-down decisions, according to ESPN analytics writer Seth Walder. He showed ESPN’s analytical model agreed with Campbell, just barely, increasing the Lions’ win probability by 0.3%, close enough that either decision could be justified given the numbers.
After the game, Campbell said he wanted to be aggressive to try to take back the momentum, and will live with the scrutiny he receives.
Ben Baldwin’s popular fourth down model more strongly signaled going for it was the right call in both cases, with the fourth quarter decision increasing win probability by 2% for the Lions by attempting to convert.
