Over the next three nights, the Miami Heat will host the Indiana Pacers twice. The conclusion of this miniseries will be determined by keeping an eye on these three factors.
1. Who sets the pace?
The teams are at different ends of the pace spectrum and have not yet faced one another this season. The Pacers average 104.38 possessions per 48 minutes, which is the fastest pace in the league. With a tempo of 98.17, the Heat are the sixth slowest team in the league.
The centerpiece of the top-ranked offense in the league is Tyrese Haliburton. He tries to move quickly and take advantage of the court’s width, and he leads the league in assists. Taking more shots than any other team in the first nine seconds of the shot clock, the Pacers are a rapid shooter. Buddy Hield is a fast shooter who was just added back into the starting lineup. Myles Turner can spread the floor from the 5 position, while Bruce Brown and Obi Toppin contribute slashing and cutting.
Conversely, The Heat would like to convert any track meet into a study hall. The Heat exhaust the shot clock, making the opposition defend several shots. This is a squad that prioritizes quality over quantity, making over 25% of their shots inside the final seven seconds of the shot clock. The Heat will try to drag Indiana’s pace to their level and control the tempo of the game, but it’s easier said than done
2. Lanes of passage
The Pacers are near the top of the NBA in passes made per game and lead the league in assists. The Heat average 8.8 thefts per 100 possessions, which is the fourth-highest rate. Can you see where I’m going with this
The Heat will have more chances to jump those passing lanes and score on the other end the more times the Pacers pass, particularly the long-distance passes that they are so good at. These defensive touchdowns will be referred to as pick-sixes. The Heat should try to convert as many of Indiana’s possessions into points as possible. Although Haliburton may go for extended periods of time without making a mistake, in his last five games, he has committed four, six, three, one, and three turnovers.
Naturally, it will be advantageous to have Haywood Highsmith or Jimmy Butler in this match. Both are marked as dubious.
3. Points for second chances
This is another category at the other extreme of the spectrum that leans toward the Heat.
The Heat surrender the fourth-fewest second-chance points in the NBA, while the Pacers surrender the third-most. Every time a shot is made, the Heat should be crashing the boards in order to: (a) keep the ball away from Haliburton and (b) capitalize on Indiana’s weak defensive rebounding.
Regarding the other areas of the floor, the starting 3-point percentages for both teams’ games are roughly equal. Watch out for Haliburton’s pocket passes to rolling big men as the Pacers score a ton of points in the paint, while the Heat will score a ton of points from midfield.
